Noah Smith’s recent analysis offers a rare, balanced perspective on the current state of American politics. While some of his language may be provocative, his effort to understand both the Right and Left without falling into caricature sets his piece apart from typical partisan commentary. He provides a realistic assessment of the MAGA movement and acknowledges the growing disconnect between progressive ideology and mainstream public opinion.

Smith discusses demographic and political changes in places like California, noting that concerns some conservatives have—often dismissed as “great replacement theory”—stem from real shifts that have had lasting political consequences. While he criticizes elements of MAGA’s approach as authoritarian, he avoids sensationalist comparisons and offers thoughtful insight into why many conservatives see current political battles in existential terms.

Importantly, Smith doesn’t dismiss conservative rhetoric about “war” or cultural struggle. Instead, he seeks to understand it, especially in light of recent political violence and broader frustrations with government institutions. He describes MAGA as a dominant, consolidated force, having absorbed the remnants of the old Republican establishment.

His sharpest critique, however, is aimed at the modern Left. Smith argues that progressive energy peaked in the 2010s and has since diminished, with activists retreating into cultural safe spaces like universities and NGOs. He cites the lack of grassroots response to major policy changes—such as the overturning of Roe v. Wade—as evidence of fading momentum.

Smith also critiques progressive policy failures in areas like policing, immigration, and gender issues, noting that these positions have alienated many voters. Meanwhile, he observes that Democrats continue pushing unpopular policies, weakening their ability to counter rising conservative influence.

Ultimately, Smith calls for moderation and realism. He suggests that Democrats must move beyond ideological rigidity if they hope to remain relevant in an evolving political landscape shaped increasingly by public dissatisfaction.