Former President Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach, built on unpredictability and aggressive rhetoric, is showing clear signs of failure in global crises, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East. His signature tactic—“nobody knows what I’ll do”—generates confusion but lacks coherent strategy or effective results.

This brand of unpredictability, once marketed as a strength, combines erratic decision-making with coercive pressure. Trump’s aim was to keep both allies and adversaries off-balance. However, unlike his inner political circle or devoted followers, international leaders have independent national interests and cannot simply yield to his whims.

At the recent NATO summit in The Hague, Trump’s disdain for traditional European allies was evident. He continues to express resentment over their military reliance on the United States and openly questions whether defending Europe from Russian aggression should be America’s concern.

In response to Trump’s unpredictable stance, NATO members pledged to boost defense spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035. Despite this, there is widespread uncertainty about whether Trump, if re-elected, would honor longstanding security commitments or further destabilize the alliance.

Trump’s impulsive support for Israeli military action against Iran appears to have been driven more by personal ego and manipulation by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu than any calculated geopolitical objective. Reports indicate his administration was caught off-guard by the resulting escalation.

Analysts liken Trump’s style to the “madman theory,” where feigned irrationality is used to intimidate adversaries. But critics argue it instead signals to other nations that nuclear weapons are the only defense against erratic U.S. policy, potentially worsening global security.

Trump’s disinterest in nuance or long-term consequences has left him frustrated when ceasefires fail or outcomes make him look weak or manipulated. His volatile leadership style fosters chaos and weakens diplomacy rather than achieving the “wins” he promised.

European leaders now recognize that NATO is dependent on a U.S. president whose primary doctrine is disorder. In the face of complex geopolitical threats, Trump’s volatility has become a liability—the one trait allies can neither trust nor plan around.