Japan is on high alert following a government warning about the increasing likelihood of a devastating megaquake in the Nankai Trough. Experts now estimate a 75–82% chance of the earthquake striking within the next few decades, prompting urgent calls for national preparedness.
In January, a government panel raised the probability of the quake, while March reports projected potential damages of $2 trillion and up to 300,000 deaths. These figures surpass even the worst-case scenarios in Japan’s previous disaster planning efforts.
The 2014 national disaster response plan had aimed to cut fatalities by 80%, but recent updates indicate current measures may only reduce the toll by 20%, a deeply concerning development for disaster officials. This has led to renewed urgency in strengthening the country’s preparedness.
The government is now urging the construction of more evacuation towers, sea embankments, and a broader rollout of disaster drills. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called for “nationwide cooperation” from communities, businesses, and all levels of government to save lives.
The Nankai Trough, a massive 500-mile fault off Japan’s Pacific coast, has historically produced megaquakes every 100 to 200 years, with the last one hitting in 1946. Scientists believe Japan is entering another high-risk window.
Earlier in 2024, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) briefly issued a public warning about the Nankai Trough, only to retract it later, citing insufficient data. This incident, along with viral social media speculation and a popular manga predicting a disaster on July 5, 2025, has added to public anxiety.
Tourism has been affected as well, with a decline in visitors from Hong Kong due to the circulating rumors. However, tourist numbers from China and South Korea have reportedly increased despite the concerns.
Ryoichi Nomura, head of the JMA, cautioned that accurately predicting earthquakes is still not possible and urged the public to remain calm but alert. Drawing parallels to the 2011 Tōhoku quake and tsunami—which triggered the Fukushima nuclear disaster—scientists fear the next Nankai Trough quake could be even more catastrophic if preparation efforts fall short.
