Polymarket Opens 2028 Presidential Betting; Vance Leads

Betting platform Polymarket has launched its 2028 U.S. presidential election market, allowing users to trade shares on potential candidates. Vice President JD Vance is the current frontrunner with a 27% chance of winning, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 17% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%. Kamala Harris, the 2024 Democratic nominee, trails with just 4%, behind even Donald Trump, who is constitutionally ineligible for a third term.

Among Democrats, Newsom leads with a 22% chance, ahead of Ocasio-Cortez at 18%, Pete Buttigieg at 12%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7%, and Harris at 6%. On the Republican side, Vance holds a commanding 56% chance of winning, with Sen. Marco Rubio a distant second at 6%. The wide gap highlights Vance’s growing influence within the GOP.

Vance’s strong position comes in part from his recent appointment as RNC campaign finance chair, making him the first sitting vice president to hold the role. He’s played a key role in advancing Trump administration picks through the Senate, including Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This week, he also made headlines by casting two tie-breaking Senate votes on a $9.4 billion rescissions package that targets funding for PBS and NPR.

Meanwhile, Newsom continues to raise his national profile with high-profile interviews and strong digital engagement. He recently received an endorsement from Rep. Jim Clyburn, a major figure in Democratic politics whose 2020 support helped secure Joe Biden’s nomination. Clyburn said he “feels good” about Newsom’s 2028 chances, further fueling speculation of a presidential run.

Polymarket, which describes itself as the world’s largest prediction market, has drawn attention for its surprising accuracy in past elections. As the 2028 race begins to take shape, the platform offers a unique, data-driven look at who voters believe could capture the White House next.